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New score predicts heart disease and stroke risk for anyone in world aged over 40


Mar. 25, 2015 Science Daily

For the first time, scientists have developed a new risk score that can predict the 10-year risk of developing heart disease or having a stroke in persons aged 40 years or older in any world country.

The research is published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journal, and was led by Dr Goodarz Danaei, Assistant Professor of Global Health at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, USA.

Danaei and colleagues developed, validated, and evaluated the new score, called Globorisk, using data from eight cohort studies, including more than 50,000 participants. Unlike previous risk scores, Globorisk can be updated to fit local conditions and risk factor levels in different countries using routinely available information.

Dr Danaei explains, “Globorisk is an important advance in the field of global cardiovascular disease prevention. Until now, most prediction scores were developed using a single cohort study and were never validated for accuracy in national populations for low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, clinicians and public health policy makers in these countries were left without a reliable tool to predict cardiovascular risk in their patients, community, or country.”

Globorisk measures cardiovascular risk in individuals aged 40 or older by factoring in the person’s smoking status, blood pressure, diabetes status, and total cholesterol level, whilst adjusting for the effects of sex and age on cardiovascular disease between countries.

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